Mortgage rates in Canada continue to be a major topic for homeowners, buyers, and investors — especially as many mortgages approach renewal in 2025 and 2026. While the Bank of Canada has held its policy rate steady, fixed mortgage rates have recently moved higher, driven by changes in the bond market.
Here’s what’s happening and how it may affect your mortgage decisions.
Why Fixed Mortgage Rates Are Rising in Canada
Fixed mortgage rates are closely tied to the Government of Canada five-year bond yield, not directly to the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate.
Recently, the five-year bond yield increased from approximately 2.8% to just under 3%, prompting lenders to adjust their fixed-rate pricing. As a result:
• Many major banks increased advertised five-year fixed mortgage rates above 4%
• The most competitive fixed mortgage rates in Canada are now generally in the high-3% range
• Some lenders adjusted rates within the same week, reflecting bond market volatility
Even small bond yield changes can significantly impact mortgage rates, particularly for five-year fixed terms.
What’s Driving Bond Market Changes?
The recent movement in bond yields was influenced by stronger-than-expected Canadian employment data. Key highlights include:
• A drop in the national unemployment rate to 6.5%
• Three consecutive months of job growth
• Signs of economic resilience heading into 2026
Stronger economic data reduces expectations for near-term interest rate cuts, which typically pushes bond yields — and fixed mortgage rates — higher.
Mortgage Rate Outlook for 2026
Most market forecasts suggest that 2026 could be a relatively stable year for fixed mortgage rates, assuming there are no major economic or geopolitical disruptions.
This means:
• Fixed rates may remain elevated compared to pandemic-era lows
• Sharp rate declines are less likely in the short term
• Borrowers may benefit from planning rather than waiting for rate drops
Stability can be helpful for homeowners who prioritize predictable payments and long-term budgeting.
Fixed vs Variable Mortgage Rates: Which Is Better?
Choosing between a fixed or variable mortgage rate depends on your financial situation rather than trying to time the market.
Fixed Mortgage Rates
• Predictable payments
• Protection from rate increases
• Easier budgeting for households
Variable Mortgage Rates
• Typically start lower than fixed rates
• Payments or amortization may change as rates move
• Greater flexibility for refinancing or breaking early
There is no universal “best” mortgage rate. The right choice depends on income stability, risk tolerance, and long-term plans.
Renewing Your Mortgage in 2025 or 2026?
If your mortgage renewal is coming up in 2025 or 2026, reviewing your options early can provide significant advantages.
Planning ahead allows you to:
• Compare mortgage rates across lenders
• Secure rate holds before potential increases
• Evaluate refinancing or restructuring opportunities
• Avoid last-minute renewal pressure from your bank
Many homeowners accept their lender’s renewal offer without comparison, which can result in higher rates or less favourable terms.
Frequently Asked Questions About Mortgage Rates in Canada
Are fixed mortgage rates going down in Canada?
Fixed mortgage rates fluctuate based on bond markets. While long-term stability is expected, short-term decreases are not guaranteed.
Is it better to choose a fixed or variable mortgage in 2025?
It depends on your financial goals. Fixed rates offer stability, while variable rates may offer flexibility and potential savings if rates decline.
When should I start planning my mortgage renewal?
Ideally 12–18 months before renewal, especially in a changing rate environment.
Do banks offer the best mortgage rates?
Not always. Many competitive mortgage rates are available through alternative lenders and mortgage professionals.
Final Thoughts
Mortgage rates can change quickly — even when the Bank of Canada does not adjust its policy rate. Bond market movements play a key role, particularly for fixed-rate mortgages.
Whether you are renewing, refinancing, or purchasing, understanding how mortgage rates work can help you make confident, informed decisions.
For Ontario homeowners and buyers, early planning and proper guidance can make the mortgage process straightforward and stress-free.
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