As September comes to an end, I’m hearing the exact same question from buyers across the GTA:
“Should I buy now, or wait for prices to come down more?”
It’s a fair question.
If you’ve been waiting for the market to hit the absolute bottom, though, there’s something important to keep in mind: nobody knows exactly when that bottom will happen.
And while prices have come down from previous highs and borrowing conditions have stabilized, there’s another piece of the puzzle that buyers need to watch closely right now—inventory.
Lower Prices, But Fewer Homes to Choose From
Across the GTA, home prices remain below their previous peaks. That has naturally brought some buyers who were sitting on the sidelines back into the market. At the same time, new listings have been declining significantly—with fresh inventory dropping over 14% year-over-year.
That creates an interesting market dynamic: more buyers are looking to re-enter, but there are fewer homes to choose from.
This is especially critical for buyers shopping below the $1 million price point. Well-priced freehold homes, townhomes, and semis in desirable neighbourhoods can still attract strong interest, especially when they are move-in ready.
So, Should You Wait?
Trying to catch the exact bottom sounds great in theory. The problem is, you only know where the bottom was after the market has already moved past it.
Waiting for another small price drop could save you a fraction on paper—but if that home attracts multiple offers later because overall inventory is tighter, that potential savings can disappear in a heartbeat.
That doesn’t mean you should rush out and buy just because autumn has arrived. It means you should be prepared so you can make a clear-headed decision when the right property actually comes along.
If You’re Buying Under $1 Million, Think Beyond Detached
If a detached home in your preferred neighbourhood is facing too much competition, look at the bigger picture. Consider expanding your search to include:
Freehold townhomes and semi-detached options
Different neighbourhoods offering similar lifestyle amenities for less
Up-and-coming areas positioned well for long-term growth
Homes that need a little cosmetic work but boast great structural potential
Sometimes the best opportunity isn’t the exact cookie-cutter home you originally envisioned. It’s the one that gives you the right combination of price, location, and long-term value.
Get Your Financing Figured Out First
This is one of the most important pieces of advice I give to my buyers: Don’t wait until you find the house to figure out the mortgage.
Get your pre-approval done. Know your comfortable monthly payment. Understand your down payment and closing costs so you know what you can actually afford before you start submitting offers. That way, when the right property hits the market, you aren’t scrambling to get organized while someone else steps in ahead of you.
Look at Your Neighbourhood—Not Just the GTA Average
GTA-wide numbers make great headlines, but they rarely tell the whole story. Real estate is hyper-local; the market can look entirely different from one street or neighbourhood to the next.
That’s why looking at what’s actually happening at a local level—inventory levels, recent comparable sales, and what local buyers are competing for—matters most.
The right question isn’t always “Are citywide prices going down?”
It’s: “Is this particular home priced fairly for this particular neighbourhood?”
Let’s Make a Plan
You don’t need to predict the bottom of the market. You just need to know your numbers, understand the local conditions, and be ready when quality meets value.
If you’re thinking about buying in the GTA this fall—especially if you're targeting homes under $1 million—let’s talk about your budget, your mortgage options, and what is actually available in the areas you’re considering.
Send me a DM or give me a call today. Let’s make a plan that makes sense for you.
From Loan to Home — Your Trusted Path to Ownership. 🏡