August brought another shift in the GTA real estate market, and the biggest story isn’t a major drop in prices. It’s less inventory.
According to the latest TRREB numbers, fewer homes are coming onto the market while sales have only dipped slightly. For buyers and sellers heading into the fall market, that’s something worth paying attention to.
Let’s Look at the Numbers
Here’s where the GTA market landed in August:
5,057 sales — down 2.1% from August last year
12,075 new listings — down 14.1% year-over-year
$993,410 average selling price — down 2.7% year-over-year
4.8 months of inventory — keeping the overall market around balanced territory, although it can look very different depending on the neighbourhood and property type
The big number that stands out to me? New listings are down much more than sales.
That means buyers are still looking, but they have fewer homes to choose from.
Prices Aren’t Dropping as Quickly
Another important part of the August numbers is what’s happening with prices.
The average GTA selling price was $993,410, which is 2.7% lower than last August. That’s a smaller decline than July’s 4.5% year-over-year drop.
So while prices are still below last year, the pace of decline has been narrowing.
The MLS® Home Price Index also showed signs of stabilization, with the benchmark price remaining relatively steady month-over-month.
Different property types are also telling different stories:
Detached homes continued to make up a large portion of sales, with an average price of about $1.29 million and a smaller year-over-year decline.
Condos averaged around $617,600, down 3.6% from last year. For some first-time buyers, condos may continue to offer a more accessible entry point into the market.
Townhomes and semi-detached homes are also seeing steady demand, especially in family-friendly areas where inventory is limited.
What About Mortgage Rates?
The Bank of Canada has continued to hold its overnight rate at 2.25%, which means borrowing costs have been relatively stable.
So right now, the market isn’t just about interest rates.
Buyer confidence, affordability, the economy and overall uncertainty are all playing a role in how people are making their decisions.
What Does This Mean Heading Into Fall?
This is where things get interesting.
New listings are down 14.1%, while sales are down only 2.1%.
That’s a pretty big difference.
For buyers, fewer listings means less choice. If the right home comes along and it’s priced properly, you may not have as much room to wait and see what happens.
That doesn’t mean you should rush into buying. It means you should know your numbers, understand your neighbourhood and be ready when the right opportunity comes up.
For sellers, less competition can work in your favour — but pricing still matters. Buyers are informed, and an overpriced home can still sit.
The GTA is a big market, and what’s happening in one neighbourhood can look completely different from another.
My Take
I wouldn’t make a decision based on one headline or one number.
If you’re buying, let’s look at what’s actually available in the areas and price range you’re considering.
If you’re selling, let’s look at your competition, recent sales and what buyers are responding to right now.
The fall market is here. The question is: what does it mean for your next move?
If you’re thinking about buying, selling or just want to understand what the numbers mean for you, DM or call me. Let’s talk through your options — no pressure.
From Loan to Home — Your Trusted Path to Ownership. 🏡